The final weekend of college basketball is here. Despite the fact that everybody loves a good underdog story, we might have the greatest Final Four of all time. For the second time ever, all four no. 1-seeded teams have advanced to the Final Four. The only other time this happened was in 2008, when Kansas beat Memphis in the National Championship. Some notable names from that year are Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Steph Curry.
Fast forward to 2025, and now Duke, Houston, Auburn and Florida all look to take home a national title. All four teams have been atop the nation, being ranked within the top 10 in the AP poll for the last 10 weeks of the season.
All four teams rank top 10 in offensive and defensive rating in the KenPom. All sit in the sweet spot of the Killshot Metric, a metric that determines how much a team can go on scoring runs and give up scoring runs. All fit inside the Trapezoid of Excellence, which measures pace of play against adjusted net rating, a metric that previous national champs fall under often. This is unheard of, and if my research is correct, it is the first time ever all no. 1 seeds fit this, and all four Final Four teams fit this.
As for my picks, I went 3-1 in the Elite Eight, with Michigan State failing me. This puts me at 48-12 overall, and with three games remaining, the goal is to eclipse the 50 picks mark. I know how San Antonio will play out, and I know what two teams will go to the National Title game.
The first game in the Final Four is an SEC matchup, with the champions of the South region, the Auburn Tigers, facing off against the champions of the West region, the Florida Gators.
Auburn has been struggling to pull away in all their games in this year’s tournament, where they trailed and had to make a comeback in the second half against two of their opponents. However, with the resurgence of Johni Broome, who was averaging 23.5 points and 15 rebounds in his last two outings, Auburn was able to try and create a trend away from early struggles, as they were able to cling onto a lead early against Michigan State and held on for the win.
Michigan State had thrived on being a huge second-half team, winning from having big scoring runs in those final 20 minutes. Despite being outscored by Michigan State in the second half, Auburn was able to match Michigan State’s shots to withstand the Spartans.
As for Florida, Walter Clayton, Jr. has arguably been the best player in the tournament, averaging 22.3 points per game, cutting down on turnovers and only having one in their win over Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. That game was a nailbiter for Gators fans, where they finished the final three minutes of the game on a 18-4 run, coming back down 75-66 to win 84-79. Clayton, Jr. once again was huge for the Gators, scoring or assisting on 14 of those final 18 points.
Thomas Haugh has been huge for Florida, averaging 13.3 points a game in the tournament, proving to be a valuable bench player. He has been great at getting to the free throw line and was a sniper at the three-point line in their last win.
As for the prediction, I lean one way a lot more. Auburn has been a great team all year and Johni Broome is an excellent player and leader, but Florida is red hot. They have now won their last 10 games, and the last time they faced Auburn, they snapped the Tigers’ 14-game win streak. I like Florida’s ability to not completely shut down, but limit Johni Broome a bit, and I think Clayton, Jr. will be able to orchestrate a masterclass, and the Gators clinch a spot in the National Championship.
The second matchup in the Final Four is between the champions of the East region, the Duke Blue Devils, and the champions of the Midwest region, the Houston Cougars. This matchup is going to be an unstoppable force versus an immovable object type of game, with Duke having the no. 1-rated offense and Houston having the no. 1-rated defense.
Duke faced off against an unbelievable Alabama team who had just scored 113 points against BYU in the Sweet 16, and Duke shut them down. They absolutely dominated on both sides of the court, and with four of their five starters scoring double digits, they ran Alabama off the court, which seemed nearly impossible.
The scariest part about Duke isn’t their star freshman Cooper Flagg, but the fact that they have broken and forced changes to some metrics. They have the best offensive rating in KenPom but also have the fifth-best defensive rating.
As for Houston, they cruised into the Final Four and did what they do best — force teams to slow down. Tennessee averaged nearly 75 points per game and Houston held them to 50. Their ability to win games with ease without the need for an insane outing can be scary. They shoot excellently from behind the three, and they force many threes attempted by their opponent to be greatly contested.
Emmanuel Sharp and L.J. Cryer have been a fun guard tandem to watch, with the two averaging 30.1 points a game combined. They elevate their team and can be a very hard backcourt to contain. Looking more at them as a team, they win games through the turnover battle, having a plus-14 turnover margin in the tournament, the best of the remaining four teams.
Houston will have to outperform the guards and step up on offense more. Duke isn’t a team that they can use their normal winning formula against. Turnovers don’t affect the Blue Devils, as they have lost the turnover battle in three of their four tournament games. Even with losing the turnover battle, Duke has an average margin of victory of 23.5 points. Duke’s team and their ability to have so many guys score with ease and defensively stop top players is unbelievable. I trust Flagg, but good performances from Kon Kneuppel and Tyrese Proctor are key. I think they show up for Duke, outperforming the Houston backcourt and the Blue Devils clinch the second spot in the National Championship.
There you have it. My final March Madness National Championship Game prediction: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Duke.
Bryce Norwood can be reached at [email protected]