Earlier this month, postdoctoral researcher Adrienne Marshall’s study was published in Geophysical Research Letters, an academic journal. University of Idaho hydrologist Timothy Link, UI climatologist John Abatzoglou and University of California Berkeley-based Christopher Tennant co-authored the paper.
The team found snow droughts, a phenomenon where so little snow falls that it historically only happened once every four years or less, are becoming increasingly common. The frequency of snow droughts depends on location, but multi-year snow droughts are becoming six times more frequent in the western United States overall, Marshall said.
The team measured snow amount in terms of how much water is available in a snowpack. Marshall explained while “snowpack” does not have a true scientific meaning, it is accurate to describe snowpack as how much snow is available in a specific location.
“In this study, we were looking both at how year-to-year variability of peak snowpack and timing of peak snowpack is changing,” Marshall said. “And then specifically within that, we were looking at multiple years of low snow in a row with the idea that if you have one poor snow year it creates some problems, but when you get multiple low snow years in a row, those problems start getting compounded.”
Marshall said snow droughts can affect wildlife populations, forest health and water management. Some wildlife species, like wolverines, depend on abundant snow for their survival. Others may benefit from less snow and begin to alter the balance of the ecosystem.
Heavy snowfall serves as a natural reservoir for forests, Marshall and Link said. The snow keeps water in place for a longer period, allowing plant life of the forest access to constant hydration. Link further said the presence of snow decreases the risk of wildfires, and winter recreation could be affected.
An effect on river recreation and river health, along with lower river flow and warmer water temperatures, is also possible, he said. These effects could have implications on whitewater rafting season and fish habitats.
“One thing we did for this project is develop an interactive tool,” Marshall said. “(We developed it) to sort of show our results and also, as (Link) mentioned, there are so many ways to look at this data that just having figures in a journal article didn’t feel like quite enough.”
Marshall said while snow droughts are a problem across the entire western United States, the problem may not be universal. The study did not investigate outside the West, but the team said they might see different stories based on locations around the world.
In order to prevent the low-snow problem from getting worse, climate change must be addressed, Marshall said. Solutions to climate change come in two categories: mitigation, or the prevention of climate change, and adaptation, or adapting to the irreversible changes which have already occurred.
To mitigate climate change, Marshall suggested individuals can reduce their carbon footprint and tell their representatives in government they care about climate change. To adapt to the changes, Marshall suggested those who work in fields where change will hit hard — such as farming, foresting, recreation and water resource management — learn how the changes will affect their area and how they can prepare.
The team’s paper can be found as “Projected Changes in Interannual Variability of Peak Snowpack Amount and Timing in the Western United States” on the AGU publications online library. The interactive tool is available at www.snowvariability.nkn.uidaho.edu.
Lex Miller can be reached at [email protected]