If Idaho is going to claw its way back into the Western Athletic Conference race it drew up the blueprint to do so Saturday night.
For the ninth time out of nine conference games the Vandals, once again, lost the turnover battle and the shot-attempt battle.
The key, though, is despite losing the turnover battle, Idaho only turned the ball over 11 times on the night, compared to the 18 turnovers it committed Thursday in a loss to Texas State.
More importantly, Idaho didn’t turn the ball over with under three minutes remaining, allowing the Vandals to turn a one-point lead in to a four-point win down the stretch.
It also doesn’t hurt a team’s chance of winning when it shoots 52 percent from the field.
Idaho is ranked No. 55 in the nation (out of 347 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced statistics. This is based on the amount of points Idaho would score in 100 possessions against an average Division I team. Idaho would score 107 points per 100 possessions based on this system.
Under coach Don Verlin, Idaho has developed a methodical half-court offense, which rarely falls into a lull of taking low-percentage shots. That was certainly the case with the Vandals against UTSA, working the offense through Stephen Madison and Barone. The two Vandal upperclassmen took 20 of Idaho’s 50 shots (hitting 10 of them), something Verlin probably wants to see on a nightly basis.
That efficiency means little if Idaho’s turnover problems gives its opponent an extra 15 to 20 offensive possessions, since Idaho doesn’t do a great job of forcing turnovers on the other end.
Against UTSA the Vandals controlled the pace of the game and were able to re-group late when things got a bit erratic for them.
Coming up
Idaho has a weekend two-game home stand against two programs desperate for a conference win right now. Utah State, dealing with injuries to two of its top three scorers, has lost four in a row. San Jose State has lost five in a row. The Vandals are entering the second half of conference play, meaning there will be a little bit of familiarity between Idaho and its opponent from here on out. It remains to be seen if there will be a little extra motivation for Idaho to beat a Utah State team, which only beat Idaho in Logan because of a buzzer beater 3-point shot to take the game to overtime.
The luck factor
Going back to advanced statistics for a second will help illustrate what Idaho is likely in for as it hits the home stretch of the conference schedule, which is perhaps a little bit of good fortune. In the KenPom rankings Idaho ranks among the bottom third teams in the country in “luck factor.”
Idaho has played in eight conference games decided by 10 points or fewer, going 4-4 in those games. But Idaho is 2-5 in conference games in which the game is within a possession in the final two minutes.
Tight games should be the reality of life for the Vandals down the stretch.
Sean Kramer can be reached at [email protected]