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To many, the idea of a nuclear Iran is terrifying. This isn’t an unreasonable fear. The possibility exists that, were Iran equipped with nuclear weapons, it might use them to strike hostile neighbors or attack perceived threats, particularly from Israel. The question is: What should the United States do about it? And can we afford a war with Iran?
The possibility of war has been on the table for years. The Bush administration labeled Iran part of its “Axis of Evil,” and threatened military action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran continues to insist that its nuclear program is only for peaceful means, but it would be possible to weaponize that program, even if Iran is truthful about it being only for energy production.
Now it seems that war may soon be a reality. Israel is threatening to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran has accused Israel of assassinating one of its nuclear scientists. President Barack Obama has not committed to anything yet, but he hasn’t taken war off the table. It’s probable that if Israel attacks Iran, the U.S. will be drawn into the conflict.
The problem is that America can’t afford the war. Even if a preliminary strike is ethically sound (and it’s hard to believe in the rightness of a preliminary war after the debacle that was Iraq), war with Iran would cost billions of dollars and thousands of American lives to pursue. And that’s not even counting the number of probable Iranian civilian deaths at our hands.
America’s resources are still drained from the war with Iraq and the ongoing war in Afghanistan. We simply don’t have the money for another war. Our economy is still weak, and fighting another war would mean even more government debt and the end of any chance of economic recovery. Of course, the same Republicans who were so concerned with the debt when we were trying to do things like provide adequate health care to the poor are the ones calling for us to attack Iran.
They also seem to forget that Iran is not Iraq. Unlike Iraq, Iran may actually be a threat. But also unlike Iraq, Iran is not a barely-unified sectarian country held together by a dictatorship. We easily removed Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, and even then it cost billions just to try and stabilize the country afterward. Not only would an Iranian occupation likely take even longer than the Iraqi occupation, but we would be fighting a stronger, better-equipped army and facing a population unified against us.
America is not without its allies in Iran. The same students and young people who protested the Iranian elections in 2009 tend to have good opinions of America, and many love American popular culture. If we attack Iran, we will lose all that support. It will not just be supporters of the Iranian regime who would die in U.S. military strikes. Even those who do not support the regime will rally to them in the face of an outside invasion. They will not greet us as liberators.
America must find another solution to the Iranian issue. There are no easy answers to the threat of a nuclear Iran. But it is clear America cannot afford another war.
Max Bartlett can be reached at [email protected]