March is right around the corner and with the month of March comes one of the biggest sporting events of the year, March Madness.
With that being said, it’s never too early to get a step ahead on March Madness, with many teams having a guaranteed spot due to their regular season dominance and others that will need to win their conference championship to punch their ticket into the big dance. In this edition of Wood Talks Sports, I will be giving you my best insight on who to keep an eye on when making your bracket as your potential National Champion.
A very interesting metric that I always look out for is the KenPom, an advanced metric system created by Ken Pomeroy. This has become such a crucial stat to look at when creating brackets in March Madness, as it is a great way to see who can actually win the whole tournament.
There is one particular KenPom stat relating to previous national champs, tracing back to 2001. 96% of all champions since 2001 were ranked in the top 21 in KenPom offense before the tournament began. 91% of all champions since 2001 were ranked in the top 31 in KenPom defense before the tournament. Not only are these teams usually really good with a good record, but they are extremely balanced.
Currently, there are nine programs that fit the criteria. Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Clemson and Maryland all fit the KenPom criteria. I will discuss my two favorites for this season.
Now, this might be a little basic, but the Duke Blue Devils are a very good team. Sitting at 25-3, Duke has only lost to top teams in basketball or also known as quadrant 1 games. Duke has a star-studded lineup, including three projected top 10 picks in Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach, and the favorite for the Wooden Award, and consensus projected No. 1 pick, Cooper Flagg.
Duke ranks first in net rating for the KenPom, and top 5 in both offense and defense. I think this Duke team is one of the most well-rounded Duke teams in a while, so I will have them as a favorite.
Another team that fits the KenPom that I will keep my eyes on is Houston. The Big 12 is arguably the best conference in college basketball, and Houston sits atop the Big 12. Sitting at 24-4 on the year, the Cougars rank 3rd in net rating, and are 7th in offense and 3rd in defense.
Their team is very well rounded, with four starters averaging over double digits scoring on the season. The most impressive part about Houston though is their stout defense, allowing the country’s least number of points at 57.8 points allowed per game.
Another team I will mention that doesn’t fit the KenPom, but is right outside, is the Michigan State Spartans. Coach Izzo elevates his team in March, and there is a chance I could see Michigan State making a run at the title from a 2-3 seed.
With the season coming to an end, I thought we would briefly go over my prediction for who will win the Wooden Award, which is awarded to the best player in college basketball. At this point of the season, it is a two-man race between Cooper Flagg from Duke and Johni Broome from Auburn. Flagg currently averages 19.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 1.6 steals. Broome averages 18.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.6 blocks.
Looking at both players, as they are the leaders of their teams, who also sit at 1 and 2 in the rankings, I would have to lean towards Cooper Flagg winning the award, since he’s doing this as a freshman and leads his team in all categories.
Bryce Norwood can be reached at [email protected]