In the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, 63 drivers have entered at least one race. Of those, 12 will have the chance to win the Sprint Cup when NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup begins on Sept. 14 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Seven races remain until the playoff-style cutoff and seeding.

If you are an athlete looking to be in your chosen sport’s championship payoffs every year, do not choose NASCAR. The odds of making the Chase any year are slim, and only Jimmie Johnson has made the Chase every year since the format was introduced in 2004.

Twelve out of 63. This isn’t the NBA and half the teams make the playoffs. This isn’t the National League West where a .500 record is good enough to win the division. Sure, you don’t have to win a race to make the Chase, but if you don’t, you get a lower seed. And if you aren’t one of the 12 drivers running for the cup, you don’t have to clean out your locker and go home. You still get to race.

Here’s how it works: After 26 races, the top 12 in the points standings are leveled off at 5,000 points. Everyone else keeps the points they have. The top 12 are then given a 10-point bonus for every race won up to that point.

This puts a higher premium on winning races than just running well. Blame Matt Kenseth, the last champion of the Winston Cup era. He ran away with the 2003 championship and only won one race.

Getting us up to now and before the next race at Indianapolis, the standings are: Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne and Denny Hamlin.

If the Chase started today — and I’m glad it doesn’t — there would be movement up down the ranks, except for Busch. His seven wins place him at the top with everyone else playing catch up. It would look like this with the number of wins in parentheses: Busch (7), Edwards (3), Kahne (2), Earnhardt Jr. (1), Burton (1), Johnson (1), Hamlin (1), Gordon (0), Biffle (0), Kenseth (0), Harvick (0), Stewart (0).

Remember, too, that just because you won a race — Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch — doesn’t mean you make the chase. You have to be in the top 12.

As of July 12, the top six are in good shape. Gordon, who is in sixth place, is 497 points behind Busch but seventh- place Biffle is 563 points back. Hamlin, sitting in 12th, is 598 points behind Busch. Bowyer, who was 2007’s Chase surprise, is 13th — 625 points behind first place.

Do the math. Six through 12 is where the battle is. Getting wins in the next seven races will be the key to being 20 points behind or 200.
That’s the problem. If Busch keeps winning like he has, he could build such a lead that even the new format won’t keep anyone else close.

Yes, there are points for second place. Just not bonus points.

Ask any athlete in any sport. Making the playoffs is better than not making them, but second place is still the first loser.

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